A question that often comes up on sports betting forums is “Should I purchase betting picks?”
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Personally, I’ve always answered this question as no, because very few cappers selling picks are actually winners. The few that are winners often rely on line movement, multiple unit bets on small markets, buying hooks, etc. As a result, their records are often based on lines not available to all clients. While all of these are concerns, the bigger reason not to purchase picks is that there are far more cost effective methods to beat sports for larger profits than purchasing picks allows. I’ll cover these methods in this article, and then cover a marketing tactic used by pick sellers that you’ll want to be aware of.
Beat Sports Betting Without a Tout
Method #1: Our website provides numerous sports betting strategy articles. Read our article on teaser betting strategy where you’ll find enough information to profit immediately from football teasers. Next, read our article on NFL prop betting, and you’ll have the knowledge required to beat the “which team will score first?” prop. Once familiar with this data, you can learn new skills via books on sports betting.
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1) Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong
2) Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao
These are great books to tune you to think more like a winning sports bettor, and less like a fan or recreational bettor. One thing I’ll warn, however, is that these books are slightly outdated. I strongly suggest that prior to reading these books, you also read our article on the current betting market. When you’ve mastered the information in the articles and books I’ve suggested, you might then want to dive into the book Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel.
To sum this up, the two articles I recommended are enough to get you on track winning as a sport bettor. When you’re ready to take it to the next levels, plenty of information exists. Spending a little time and effort on sports betting will make you far more profitable than purchasing picks will.
Method #2: Follow free picks on the internet. Here at TheSportsGeek.com, we run a picks blog, where you can get the same caliber betting picks that NFL expert pick sites sell. Why pay for picks when you can get picks for free?
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Our picks blog is only one source of free picks. Bloggers, forum posters, twitter users, and others give out free picks daily. While I’m sure this will sound absurd to most readers, I actually know a guy who uses custom developed software to scour the internet and find picks. The software delivers to him via a feed where any detected picks are hyperlinked. To track the pick, he clicks the hyperlink, assigns it to a user and the software does the rest. He can then go back later and find all sorts of data about how forum posters, bloggers, and tweeters are doing. This helps him not only to follow picks, but to spot winners and start paying more attention to the info they share elsewhere. This is obviously way too advanced for most of us, but the point is that looking for winners and then tracking their picks going forward can help you greatly. Once again, I ask, why purchase picks, when you can get picks for free?
When Should I Buy Picks?
When purchasing picks you need to find services that are either low cost, proven and tracked with high win rate, or of course best of all – both. The more money you spend on a picks service the higher winning percentage the handicapper will need to hit in order for you to make a profit. Check out our sports betting systems page for a list of handicappers and systems that are affordable.
Starting Off Small
For recreational gamblers, sport betting is meant to be fun. There are tons of contests on the internet that you can enter for either free or low stakes. During the football season, anyone who wins a $5 staked 10-team parlay at Bovada.lv also receives a share of the $10,000 weekly jackpot which is split with all winners. If there is no winner, the jackpot rolls over to the next week. Meanwhile, an old sportsbook previously offered $100,000 free to anyone who picks a perfect parlay card. While these are long shots, there are also picks pools, survivor pools, etc. available at the start of the season. Starting in late August, begin Google searches for NFL contests, and starting in late February, search for March Madness contests and bracket buster challenges. This type of betting can be a lot more fun that purchasing picks, and it can help you grow a bankroll while learning.
Now, if you’re a serious sports bettor looking to do this as an investment, purchasing picks is not the way to go. Once you win enough, your opportunities to wager become less, as no one wants to take your bets. Getting around this requires creativity, and the more knowledge you actually have about sports betting, the more creative you can get.
Reason to Avoid Touts
Having already presented a solid argument on reasons not to purchase picks without attacking the pick selling industry, it’s time now to get a little more dirty. The first thing to understand is that the tout industry is based off hype and marketing that plays on desperate gamblers. In sports betting, there are a lot of degenerate gamblers absolutely buried in debt looking for a way out. Also in this group, you’ll find a lot of extremely naïve people, which is easily explained by the fact that this is the group who feels they can make a profit randomly picking, despite the bookies 4.55% house edge. While most bet responsibly and use sports betting for entertainment, many are much deeper than that, and this is who the touts target.
To give an example of an ad that plays on the naïve, I’ll share the details of a newsletter I recently got from one of the largest and most reputable expert picks site. The header is a large advertisement with a photo of one of the cappers, and the impressive text states “Going back to last year he is riding a STAGGERING 13-5 ATS (72.2%)”, and reading further into the text, this relates to his picks on Fridays – yes, only Fridays. Below this, to the side of the newsletter’s main content, there are three smaller ads which each have a photo of a capper. The first capper is 13-4 on NFL games this month, the second has 27 years in business and wants to sell me a pick (no stats), where the third won last night and thinks he’ll do the same tonight.
I’ve played down what the ads say a little, and the ad copy is great with many claims sure to get a casual sports bettor interested. However, as a professional gambler and someone who uses statistics on a daily basis, I have a much different opinion. The first thing that jumps out at me is the opening ad, and I say, “what the heck makes Friday special?” If this capper is winning long term, wouldn’t his overall record be much more relevant than some obscure stat. What are his records on other days of the week? Now don’t get me wrong; maybe he has a winning record all 7 days of the week, I have no idea, what I’m simply saying is that they dived into a huge pool of stats to come up with whichever statistic looked best. He could in fact be a massive career loser and have a stat run like this on “Fridays dating back to last season”.
I had similar feelings about the 13-4 in October advertisement. Out of curiosity, I went and checked this company’s main website and found they have 15 cappers marketed as NFL experts selling picks. Having some knowledge of statics, I ran the math. If 15 people flip a coin heads or tails a total of 17 times each, there is a 73% chance one of them hits heads at least 13 times. More or less, if I had 15 monkeys picking teams at random, I’d have a similar stat to share.
Expert pick sites are great marketers, I’ll give them that. However, these ads are rather deceiving, as most are just cherry picked ripples of variance. It’s good marketing and the company might be legit; I just encourage you to keep a level head and not to get drawn into purchasing picks based on tout marketing hype. These guys have tons and tons of data that they can pick from, and they can market their results in such a way that desperate gamblers want to buy.
Once again, rather than pay for picks, why not get them for free at a free picks blog such as our sports betting picks blog that provides winners weekly at no cost. Ultimately, though, buy betting picks or don’t buy betting picks. It’s your choice. Whatever you decide, we wish you the best of luck.
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Below we will give you a rundown on the most popular sections of our website that will help you with your sports betting, and our common goal of beating the bookies or making a profit with our betting.
Sports Betting Picks
The most popular section of our sports betting site is the Sports Betting Picks page, which is updated daily with free picks. Here at The Sports Geek we’ve put together a team of expert sports bettors who are all very qualified to contribute to the site with their betting advice for the night’s action.
We are constantly reviewing the picks the team is putting out on a nightly basis to ensure we have only the highest quality information and picks being posted at The Sports Geek. We have certain team members dedicated to each league so that they can keep their focus focus on their handicapping specialties. This allows each writer to specialize in their sports and give out picks with a very solid winning percentage.
You can sign up for our email list by clicking on the button at the top of this page to receive every pick we release in the free picks section via email.
We highly recommend you bookmark the sports betting picks page and check back daily to read up on all of our sports betting tips and picks.
Sports Blog
Our blog section has been implemented to add dynamic and useful content regarding the current climate in sports as well as betting on sports. We hope that you find the articles here helpful and really enjoy reading them.
We continue to update the blog regularly with new articles to make sure that our readers are staying up to date with what’s happening in the world of sports.
Here are our most recent articles:
Sports Betting Strategy
Another very popular section of The Sports Geek is our Sports Betting Strategy section.
We give you basic sports betting tips and strategies for those bettors new to sports betting, but we also have very in-depth sports betting strategy articles written by professional sports bettors, who have made hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on sports.
If you want to make more money betting on sports this is a section of The Sports Geek that you must spend some time reading through. The basics will help you get started on the right track, and the advanced articles will help you find edges over the sportsbooks and give you the best chance at winning.
All of this has been done to accomplish our goal of making this the best sports betting guide on the Internet. We hope you take the time to read through these articles.
Here are a few to get you started
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Sports Betting Odds
This section of our website has two purposes. The first is to help beginner sports bettors understand how to read betting odds, including learning about the different types of odds you will see posted by the sportsbooks.
The second is to provide live odds feed for bettors to compare the odds some of the top sports betting sites are offering. As any experienced sports bettor knows, it is extremely important to compare odds and place your wagers using the best odds available to you. This is also referred to as “line shopping”. If you read any of our sports betting strategy articles you will know that this is a must if you want to make money betting on sports.
Visit this section today, and bookmark it for future use.
Sports Betting Odds
Online Sports Betting
Online sports betting is a billion dollar industry, and it’s becoming more and more each and every day. We’ve personally reviewed a number of sports betting sites so that we can recommend only the best sites out there.
Sportsbook Reviews
We will say that online sports betting may not be legal where you live, so please check your local laws before placing bets online at these sports betting sites. And we also want to point out that there have been “scam” type sites in the past known to steal money from their bettors, so make sure you stick with recommended betting sites we list here at The Sports Geek.
Lastly with online betting it is easy to get carried away and bet more than you can afford. Always make sure you gamble responsibly. If you have a gambling problem or know someone who does, please get help. Visit Gamblers Anonymous today to learn more about getting help with your sports betting or gambling problem.
Sports Betting in 2019
Wow, 2018 flew by and was a great year in sports overall. We enjoyed a lot of success with the free picks here at The Sports Geek and have grown our great team of handicappers. 2019 is shaping up to be a great year with new experts joining the team and a new website to launch early in the year. We will continue to grow our Daily Fantasy Sports section of the website, which has really taken off in the last year. We are looking forward to helping you have a successful and enjoyable 2019!
About The Sports Geek
The Sports Geek was founded in 2008 and has continued to grow since. It started off as a small site and there were no real big plans for it, but as the passion for sports betting grew the website also grew with it. It’s had a team of writers helping give out free picks daily since 2010 and we’ve had a lot of success with our picks. Because of the abundance of free sports betting information we offer, our following has continued to grow.
Currently our team includes five experts, which you can learn more about on our About Us page.
Our goal is to be the best website on the Internet for free sports betting information and picks, and we are constantly working on finding new ways to improve our site to best fit your needs as a sports bettor. Winning money betting on sports isn’t easy, but our goal is to educate every sports bettor as much as we can to help you in your goal of profiting with your betting.
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